Politics

The Elections and All That

By geophilips ⋅ May 12, 2006 ⋅  Email This Post ⋅  Print This Post ⋅ Post a comment

Another round of state elections have officially ended today, providing yet another glimpse of the inner workings of our ‘great’ democracy. You can read all the synopsis on any news site….or switch on one of the numerous TV channels to hear one of those droning analysts who get plucked out of the ether whenever the polls come around.

Now most of you know that I am a Mallu (for those who dont, now you do.) Kerala politics particularly intrigue me. You see, democracy is meant to be a volatile exercise, where nothing can be predicted with sure certainity. Sure, in this age of opinion polls, exit polls, and other such statistical shenanigans, we can presume to know the winner. And mostly they hold true…except when they completely turn out to be wrong as in the last general elections, when all those pollsters got egg on their faces and spent two months trying to explain why they were wrong.

But in May 2001, when the outgoing UDF government came to power, every Keralite knew that the LDF would win in 2006. Why? Because we believe in giving everyone a chance…one after the other. For the last three decades, we vote in one government and kick them out after 5 years. This would in most cases be considered idiotic and suicidal, especially with regard to the development and welfare of the state. Thats why all politicians harp about a stable mandate, political capital and so on.

I put this question forward to my grandfather during one of my vacations from college. What could possibly be the logic in such a pattern? Now, my grandfather, like many of his peers (retired and not engaged in any strenuous work), has become a full-blown and erudite political analyst. He is also a lifetime Congressman, being a Christian from central Kerala (dont ask why.) He hates the Marxists with a vengeance. His types are balanced out by those in ‘Red’ districts like Kannur, who think that Karunakaran and his ilk are an abomination unto our society. Of course, the Marxists and the Congress are bedfellows in neighbouring TN and at the Centre. That is another story.

There is a small percentage of swing voters in between these two camps. They ultimately make or break a government’s fate at the hustings. And for 33 years, they choose to go with the other side. Dont read too much into the number of seats won by the LDF. The margins in almost all these seats are 1 to 2 percentage points.

So would Kerala be ideally served if a majority from this camp decided to take up with more certainity with one or the other front? Yes, I would have said. No, said my appachan, suprisingly. His logic was simple. By switching sides every 5 years, these people ensured that the policy of the government in power remained consistent with that of the previous one.

The big question is how…Simple enough. 5 years is too little a time to enact radical changes. You would then need to develop a political consensus across the spectrum if you were to. In Kerala, where every policy undergoes trial by media and by every Tom, Dick and Harry at the corner teashop, political consensus inevitably means acceptance by the majority of the people themselves. Once a policy has been so constructed by the previous government, a new government will risk hell and more if they scuttle it. Of course, they would have made a hue and cry about it while sitting in the Opposition. The Left were till now virulently anti-private education and supposedly, against IT development. The first private colleges were started in their previous tenure, as were the Technoparks in Trivandrum and Kochi. Now that they are back in power, expect a toning down of the rhetoric and more of the same.

This is not emotional politics. No one in Kerala worships their leaders. No manifesto promises free kilos of rice and colour TVs. This is cold blooded practicality. The government is always subservient to the will of the people. Ultimately, democracy works best when governments are guardians of the laity’s decisions rather than the policy makers/executioners/benefactors all rolled into one. Maybe, just maybe, Kerala has developed an approximation of this model.

This is not perfect obviously. We might have developed faster had this paradigm been different and we allowed some strong handed leader to come to the fore. We could have rivalled Karnataka and TN as an IT powerhouse. But nobody is complaining about it that much. If they want these things to really happen, it will. Eventually..and the way they want it to happen.

Back home, grandpa is a bit sad about the UDF losing. It was inevitable and he saw it coming, but he’s still sad. He is a sworn Congressman after all…and he cant stand the sight of Achuthanandan, the Marxist supremo. But he’ll get over it. After all, there is 2011 to look forward to. Anybody wanna bet Rs 500 on the results of those elections..you know where to reach me.